Sickness absence towards 2030: what HR needs to do now

Sickness absence in the Netherlands stood at 5.4% in 2025. Ten years earlier it was still 3.9%. In the first quarter of 2026 it came out at 5.8%, well above the average of 5.0% since 1996. Many organisations respond with tighter absence management. That is necessary, but it does not explain why people drop out. If you really want to reduce sickness absence, you have to look at the work itself.

Three figures that often get mixed up

In absence discussions, three kinds of figures are often lumped together. They measure different things and cannot be added up.

• Time lost (5.4%). Of every 1,000 planned working days, an average of 54 were lost to illness. That is different from the share of people who call in sick: according to TNO, 51% of employees were absent at least once in 2023.
• Cause (40.1%). The share of long-term absence cases attributed to mental health complaints. Among 25 to 35-year-olds it is as high as 56.9%.
• Costs (€8.3 billion). The estimated continued pay due to work-related absence across the Netherlands, of which €4.9 billion is linked to psychosocial workload.

What does one percentage point mean for your organisation? An organisation with 500 FTE has around 110,000 working days a year. Each percentage point of absence then represents about 1,100 working days: roughly five full-time positions.

The burden is in long-term absence, not in the flu

If you look at sick reports, you mainly see flu and colds: 55% of the most recent reports. Mental health complaints account for 9%. But if you look at duration, you see a different picture. In long-term absence, from 42 days to two years, 40.1% of cases involve mental health complaints. And of the employees who are absent for that reason, 75% call the absence (partly) work-related. They are absent for an average of 63 working days.

Notably, according to CBS, the share of employees who often work under high pressure fell from 38.1% in 2015 to 31.4% in 2025. At the same time, the share who regularly feel mentally exhausted by work rose from 13% to 21%. So workload alone does not explain everything. Recovery, autonomy, support and the meaning of the work all play a part.

Five developments adding pressure towards 2030

Nobody can predict how high absence will be in 2030. But there are developments that organisations need to be alert to:

1. Staff shortages. Long-term vacancies increase the burden on those who stay.
2. Ageing workforce. Older employees are absent less often, but for longer: an average of 27 days of absence for 55 to 65-year-olds, compared with 14 for 25 to 35-year-olds.
3. Mental load. Highest in education (25.3%) and healthcare (22.9%).
4. Informal care and private life. Work and private life add up. Flexibility and predictable rosters help.
5. Digitalisation and AI. Technology lightens work, but also changes pace and expectations.

From managing absence to improving work

Good absence management remains essential. But if you only take action after someone calls in sick, you miss the chance to limit risks earlier. The Dutch Working Conditions Act already requires this: an up-to-date risk inventory and evaluation (RI&E) with an action plan, including psychosocial risks, and a policy to prevent work pressure and undesirable behaviour. Preventive employership is therefore not an extra. It is the way to give those obligations meaning.

The Job Demands-Resources model shows that high demands mainly become a problem when resources fall short: autonomy, support from the manager and colleagues, appreciation and moments of recovery. So the task is not just to make employees more resilient, but above all to organise the work better. Also read how to spot work stress earlier, before it turns into absence.

What absence data does not tell you

Absence records show how many days are lost. They do not explain whether workload, leadership, rosters or lack of recovery play a role. For that you need employee research, at group level. Ask about the work, not about health or diagnoses. Never use results to profile individuals, and involve the works council in advance: it has the right of consent on health, safety and absence policy.

Five questions for your next management team meeting

• If our absence rises by one percentage point tomorrow, do we know which teams need attention?
• Can we distinguish short-term and long-term absence per team?
• When did we last ask employees about workload, autonomy and recovery?
• Do managers have the insights and the time to act on this?
• Which measure from our action plan has demonstrably been implemented and evaluated?

Get started

With the Absence reduction module and the Workload module in Deepler Research you see per team where demands and resources get out of balance. Anonymously, at group level and without medical questions. In the whitepaper you will find a 90-day plan to get started right away.

Sources

• CBS (2026). De arbeidsmarkt in cijfers 2025, chapter Working conditions.
• CBS (2026). Sickness absence in the first quarter higher than the average over the past 30 years.
• RIVM. Long-term sickness absence due to mental health complaints, reporting year 2023 (updated November 2025).
• TNO (2025). Arbobalans: costs of work-related sickness absence continue to rise.
• Bakker, A.B. and Demerouti, E. (2007). The Job Demands-Resources model: state of the art. Journal of Managerial Psychology, 22(3), 309-328.